Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Drop 37% In President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The mean count of everyday murders each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have advised that murder data might not indicate better countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in the previous September. This data was provided by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had during these months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that last month the smallest number of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security approach for an apparently more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true given the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of daily killings was similarly concerning because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day mean renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these actions, Mexico is still plagued by extreme violence, with multiple states in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to show their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s highly effective, socially it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.