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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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