Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
