Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.